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Weekly Market Review 18.08.24
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USA
🔼S&P 500
+3.9%
🔼DOW JONES
+2.9%
🔼NASDAQ
+5.3%
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EUROPE
🔼STOXX 600
+2.5%
🔼DAX
+3.4%
🔼FTSE 100
+1.8%
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ASIA
🔼HANG SENG
+2.0%
🔼SHANGHAI
+0.6%
🔼NIKKEI 225
+8.7%
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NON-STOCK
🔼BRENT
-0.3%
🔼GOLD
+2.4%
🔼BITCOIN
-1.6%
🔼VIX
-27%
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KEY DRIVERS
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The major U.S. stock indexes recorded their strongest weekly gains of 2024. The NASDAQ surged more than 5%, the S&P 500 added 4%, and the Dow rose 3%. Following the comeback this week, the S&P 500 is now just 2% away from its mid-July record high. Data this week helped assuage a jittery market. Retail sales data released Thursday came in much stronger than economists expected, while weekly jobless claims fell. Both offered evidence that recession fears, which helped spark a global sell-off earlier this month, were overblown. Inflation readings released earlier this week also bolstered hopes that a soft landing scenario was still possible.
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In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 2.2% after climbing 2.7% in June. It increased less than expected in July as the cost of services fell by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years amid signs of diminishing pricing power for businesses, evidence of waning inflation pressures that reinforced hopes of an interest rate cut next month.
Consumer prices increased 2.9% year-over-year, down from 3% in June and the lowest reading since March 2021. So-called core inflation, which strips out food and energy from the headline number, advanced 0.2% on the month, also in line with expectations.
Retail sales increased 1% in July, far surpassing an estimate from Dow Jones that forecast a 0.3% uptick. Also separately, weekly jobless claims fell for the week. The data served as a boon to investors and a broader market trying to mount a comeback from an August rout tied to concerns about a slowing economy that arose following July’s disappointing jobs report on Aug. 2.
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According to fresh monthly report by OPEC, for the first time this year it lowered forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025. OPEC+ countries increased oil production in July and exceeded the plan taken into account of all voluntary reductions. Still Brent ended the week at low point as Chinese data showed declining imports and refinery input demand suggested that a further slowdown in the Chinese economy will weigh on total global demand.
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The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) known as Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ has dropped back below 15, after spiking above 65 during last week’s sell-off. The seven trading sessions it took the VIX to return to its long-term median of 17.6 is the index’s quickest ever drop from 35, a level associated with a high degree of fear. Below 20 is a normal reading suggesting a risk-on bias in markets. On the other hand, a reading above 20 is a bearish indicator, reflecting heightened levels of fear and uncertainty.
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Major retail companies reported results as quarterly earnings season neared an end. As of Friday, analysts were expecting S&P 500 companies overall to post a 10.9% second-quarter earnings increase compared with the same quarter a year earlier, according to FactSet. While that figure was down modestly from expectations a couple weeks earlier, it was well above analysts’ 8.9% forecast entering earnings season in early July.
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