CNN: Trump’s primary polling advantage is historically large. Trump is polling, on average, north of 50% in national polls of likely GOP primary voters. There are very few candidates, from either party, in nonincumbent races who were near or north of 50% in the national primary polls this early on. That select few includes Republicans Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000, and Democrats Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. All of those candidates won their party’s nominations, and none of those races were particularly close.
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